Betting NFL Systems and Angles

I don’t have much patience or appreciation for betting NFL team-specific angles. When I hear someone tell me that the Raiders are 15–6 ATS in their last 21 visits to the east coast, I roll my eyes (in the nicest way possible). If there’s no connecting logic behind a trend, I dismiss it.
If you read the article on preseason betting however, you’ll see I’m an advocate for some coaching systems. Long-tenured coaches develop and retain tendencies that get passed onto their teams.

In the realm of sports betting, NFL (National Football League) betting systems and angles offer bettors strategic approaches to potentially enhance their chances of success.
I. Understanding NFL Betting Systems
NFL betting systems are sets of rules and criteria based on historical data and statistical analysis. These systems aim to identify patterns and trends that can be exploited for profitable betting. For example, some systems focus on team performance in specific situations. One such system might consider underdogs in games with a total score set at 42 points or less. Historically, since the 2018 - 2019 season, underdogs in such games have a record of 205 - 150 - 10, winning against the spread (ATS) 57.7% of the time. This system becomes even more effective in divisional matchups, where divisional underdogs with a total of 42 points or less have an ATS success rate of 59.6% (84 - 57 - 4) over the last five seasons.
Another system could be centered around teams coming off a blowout loss. Bettors often overreact to a team's poor performance in a previous game. However, since the 2003 - 2004 season, teams that lost by 20 or more points and are underdogs in the next game are 275 - 222 - 14 ATS, providing a historical return on investment of 7.1%.
II. Key Angles in NFL Betting
Situational Angles
Short - rest games: Teams playing on Thursday night football after a Sunday game often face challenges due to limited preparation and rest. Historically, this has led to decreased performance in some cases. Analyzing data on Thursday night games can help bettors identify if there are statistical edges, such as a higher likelihood of unders (the combined score of both teams being less than the bookmaker - set total) in these games.
Bye - week teams: Bye weeks can have a significant impact on a team's performance. Some teams may come out rejuvenated and perform better, while others may face issues due to a disrupted rhythm. Understanding coaching trends and team health after a bye week can give bettors an edge in predicting outcomes.
Divisional games: Divisional matchups are unique as teams are very familiar with each other. These games can have different dynamics compared to non - divisional games, and studying historical data in divisional contests can help bettors find value in the betting lines.
Player - related Angles
Player props: Proposition bets on individual players, such as total passing yards, rushing touchdowns, or receptions, offer a wide range of betting opportunities. Success in player props requires in - depth knowledge of a player's performance history, usage rates, and how they match up against their opponents. For instance, if a star wide receiver is facing a weak secondary, there may be value in betting on him to exceed his projected number of receptions.
Injury - related angles: Injuries to key players can drastically change the outcome of an NFL game. Bettors need to closely monitor pre - game and in - week injury reports. If a starting quarterback is injured, it can not only affect the team's offensive performance but also cause significant shifts in the betting lines. Savvy bettors can take advantage of these line movements if they correctly anticipate how the injury will impact the game.
Matchup - based Angles
Offense - defense matchups: Analyzing how a team's offense performs against an opponent's defense is crucial. For example, looking at an offensive line's ability to protect the quarterback against a strong pass - rushing defensive line. A team with a weak offensive line facing a dominant pass - rush may struggle to move the ball, which can influence the outcome of the game and the betting lines.
Passing offense vs. secondary: A team with a high - powered passing offense going up against a vulnerable secondary presents an interesting betting angle. If the passing offense has a history of exploiting similar defenses, bettors may consider betting on the over in terms of passing yards or the number of passing touchdowns in the game.
In conclusion, NFL betting systems and angles provide a structured way for bettors to approach wagering on NFL games. By leveraging historical data, understanding situational factors, and analyzing key matchups, bettors can make more informed decisions and potentially increase their profitability in the exciting world of NFL betting. However, it's important to note that no system or angle can guarantee success, as the NFL is a highly unpredictable sport.

BET Belichick's slow starts
It’s a strange one, I know. But as successful as the man has been in all aspects of his NFL coaching career if you’re reading this and Coach Belichick is still in the business, take a look at his team’s performance in late-round playoff games. It’s downright eerie how slow the Patriots start in these high-leverage games. In 10 games, the Pats have scored a touchdown in the 1st quarter once, a field goal once, and 0 points in the first quarter in all 8 other games. Sure, it’s a little flimsy, but I had to mention it.
In an NFL playoff game
If Bill Belichick is the coach AND

It’s the Conference Championship or the Super Bowl

BET under the 1st quarter.

BET a case of the Mondays
This germ of this idea came to me from Las Vegas sports betting media mogul R.J. Bell. I’ve tweaked it slightly from his version, but I’m not sure I understand the reasoning other than a MNF win is a shot in the arm. It comes up a few times a year and has gone 39–13 ATS in the last two decades (75%, Z-score of 3.47). Most importantly, this system was a perfect 4–0 in 2019.
In an NFL regular season game
The home team’s last game was at home on Monday Night Football AND

The home team’s most recent game resulted in a win AND

The home team played less than a week ago AND

The home team is favored by less than 7 or the home team is a dog

BET the point spread of the home team.

BET restless on the road
This is an example of the rest conundrum. It makes sense that more rest is better, but there are many situations where that’s not the case; this is one of them. This system has gone 39–15 ATS (72-percent, Z-score of 3.1) in the last 7 years, but more interesting is the fact that it’s an 85-percent winner as the leg of a 6-point teaser, which rises to over 90 percent when the home team’s rest is a day more than the road team’s rest.
In an NFL regular season game
When the road team is favored AND

The game total is greater than 42 points AND

The home team has at least one extra day of rest

BET the point spread of the road team.

INCLUDE the road team in a 6-point teaser.

BET growing totals
It’s slightly more convoluted than I’d prefer, but the results are real: 54 overs and 25 unders (74 percent, Z-score of 3.15) in the last 15 years of results. I like this system because I believe it identifies a hole in the betting market. The market recognizes there’s a good reason to think both teams will score more than they did before, but there are enough bettors who aren’t convinced and who continue to bet the under. The result is the total isn’t quite as high as it should be.
In the NFL regular season or playoffs
If the game total is 4 points or more than the home team’s previous game total AND

If the game total is equal to or greater than the away team’s previous game total AND

Both team’s previous game over/under results were either under the total or no more than 1 over the total

BET over the total.

Is this mode good for beginners?

Matchmaking is awful. Keep getting paired with players who have no idea what they're doing.

The controls are intuitive and easy to master.

The humor sprinkled throughout is delightful.